Success of Samsung

Success of Samsung


I lose money because I once won some money...through gambling the winner and the loser...


This is a typical ancient Chinese idioms to tell people not to gamble, and what Chinese says, the reason of losing money because once they Have won some money.


Greed is interpreted as excessive desire to acquire or possess more than one need or deserves, buying mark six or gambling in Lisboa Hotel would likely clean off your saving only. Worst case is someone uses it's company asset to put it on the desk for a big risk challenge to try his luck.

The first time I bought Mark six was a surprise, I won one hundred dollars, over the next two years, I believed I had spent more than two thousand dollars in buying but the luck never came to me again.

So I decided not to buy again as I think the mark six is uncontrollable whereas my saving up the money is controllable.


Winner goes to those who can play safe and play smart...

September 15 2008 had a worldwide economy melt down triggered by the US house hold loan deficit by over borrowing and the sudden bankruptcy of Leman Brothers.

A lot of people might think that it would took three to five years to recover. However unexpectedly it took less than 10 months to fully recovered, Samsung grabbed the good timing to launch the LED TV as a gimmick to stimulate the consumer markets. Samsung earned a lot of market share, replaced Japan to become world number One in Hi End TV maker and as well a new worldwide recognition in Samsung’s branding.

One of the reason was good packaged product using LED as a means to have green energy for new young buyers, new technology to product thinner slimmer TV for Asian where space is a concern, time to replace TV staying home for less spending with a technology vision and clears steering direction from the CEO. Samsung had laid a rail for his hand phone locomotive to move forward even in a faster speed...

A strategy of good product marketing campaign one followed the other to capture world smart Phone. Samsung spends multi million dollars everyone just to promote his LED TV in Hong Kong one month.

Now they still capture the market of moribund Nokia, Apple and Sony to be the number one in worldwide smart phone market.

Successful factors of Samsung is: Good product, right timing, good promotion campaign and Good gimmick.

HK Snob

LED Light may cause Human Eyes Damages

Citi Bank Building in Mong Kok

Research has claimed that the ecofriendly LED lights may cause permanent damage to your eyes. The study found that exposure to LED lights can cause irreparable harm to the retina of the human eye.

According to Think-Spain.com, once the retina cells are destroyed by prolonged and continuous exposure to LED rays, they cannot be replaced and will not regrow.


Researchers said this is caused by the high levels of radiation in the 'blue band' , and is likely to become a global epidemic in the medium term given that computer, mobiles and TV screens, and even traffic and street lights, have been gradually replaced with LED. Experts are calling for the lights to have built-in filters to cut out the blue glare.

At very high light emission intensities, blue light (short-wavelength 400-500 nm) can photo-chemically destroy the photo-pigments (and some other molecules) which then act as free radicals and cause irreversible, oxidative damage to retinal cells (up to blindness).

We should treat this a social hygienic Warning, don't look at the LED light directly, do not stare at a LED light directly especial the Blue.

We should ban the Light pollution especially in area like Mongkok and Yau Ma Tei, which they keep LED light on even at night.

The advantage of using LED is partly due to the power harvest, and if we keep turning on LED 24 hours even there are no people are, that could be a way of offend the original purpose of LED.

On the other hand, LED should be categorized into part of the CE mark or National Safety for health and hygienic to have control on the emission intensity. At least some kind of warning has to be show on the Display of the Handset.

Moreover, when we use our smart phone at night, try to adjust the intensity to a comfortable intensity.

When we do hiking, don’t point the Super Bright LED head lamp at someone eyes.

HK Snob

LED Cathedral

Ghent Light Festival held in Belgium, displayed for four days (from January 26 to January 29, 2012), as a cathedral and made from no less than 55.000 LED lights. According to the official website of the festival, “Belfortstraat (Belfort Street) was the domain of the Luminarie Cagna. A giant colonnade made of wood and hundreds LEDs, with arches that remind one of Romanesque and Renaissance architecture. This immense work of art with 55,000 LED lights consumes only 20Kwatt / h of electricity.
HK Snob

Typical 3 W LED bulb Construction

LED 3 Watts Light bulb

This is a typical more les standard LED light bulb configuration from YuanShuai ShenZhen,

6 pieces 7025 LEDs mounted on an Aluminum substrate screwed onto the aluminum heat sink for hest dissipation, a simple Switching board that converted 220V AC into 3.75 V DV to drive the 7 LEDs.

A Light reflector screw in on to the heat sink,

This is pretty standard set-up for making the LED, and we know that we can actually buy the parts to make our own assembly.

How is the price, well you may not believe it, we bought it in a Recent Shenzhen LED Show with just RMB3.00. that is about HKD$3.6 or USD$0.5!!

I am sure this is juts a promotional price for this Chinese LED supplier. But that is the trend of the LED ASL going down to USD$5 for a 3W LED light blub.

That is the price for norm for a good reliable material, and reliable driving circuitry for a 3W LED package.

HK Snob

OutLook For China LED market 2012-2014

Outlook for LED market and LED manufacturing

China MOCVD Market slow down

The China MOCVD tool market grew rapidly and reached a peak in 2011, MOCVD installation ranked as first in the world with a half of the total quantity shipped in the world.

Oversupply is one of major reason of slow down on the MOCVD, utilization rate as low as 20% were happened especially on some “new comers”. In 2012, China's new MOCVD installation is expected to be about 40% of 2011 level. MOCVD market is expected to be at a low level till 2014.

China LED Fab,

China LED industry experienced a rapid increase in 4 years and — had a total of about 80 LED epitaxial and chip fabs at the end of 2011. However price Erosion is the major bad news in maintaining the business. Starting in 2012, the number of China fabs could decline due to either loss or unable to provide deliverables to the private or state investors. Estimated 40% of China LED fabs will suspend operations or be acquired by 2015. Only companies has strong technology foothold, large scale productivity and patented technology will remain unaffected. 

I have talked to some of the key players in China and their lines they bought in 2010 is still running with 30-40% capacity, which is still under my earlier estimation of 50-60% for September 2012. This is a bad sign that LED is not growing fast as we expected in 2011.

Reasons are:

1. Price Erosion
2. Technology improvement with higher efficacy of LED, less LED is required for same light intensity before.
3. End application design improvement including light guide effiency thus reducing the number of LEDs
4. LED assembly is continuing fine tuning the manufacturing process and manufacturing equipment UPH maximizing.
5. Low cost low end assembly equipment is dumping into the China market
6. Domino effect of end users are feeling nervous of using LED quality LED made by low end Assembly equipment due to poor reliability.
7. Boosting too much on the LED Life time, but due to poor driver circuit design and poor wire bonding process or the fall out Chip in use, the LED dies much earlier than it was Claimed to be.

Nowadays, everyone knows the LED assembly process, and there are so many Fabs making LED, the only way to earn money is having higher powerful LED assembly technology and good supply of high power chips

Or LED will be like the case for TV… Panasonic, Sharp does not want to make TV anymore as they lose market to Korean and Chinese Makers…Sharp is going to selling their LCD panel factory to Foxconn.

Fro, what I see and guess LED will not be blooming until there are either, or and…

1. New international LED makers to have a commercial standard for LED luminaries mounting, shape, reliability and life time guarantee
2. New Driver for a national standard for LED quality.
3. UN or DOE approval LED category on Chip efficacy, assembly, luminaries, or finished LED products be rated with Energy Star.
4. Hi End Equipment Suppliers makes super-in-line assembly for Display, VLED and K2 types LED as Total solution provider. Thus to ensure good quality LED is made under automated process control.

 End

ASM Pacific Technology delivers 100x300mm leadframe packaging set up

ASM Pacific Technology delivers 100 x 300mm eadframe packaging set up
July 26, 2012 -- Semiconductor packaging and assembly equipment supplier ASM Pacific
Technology Limited noted in its H1 2012 results a record level of orders for leadframes in Q2. It also delivered what it calls the largest leadframe packaging set up to date.
â€oe Overall, the market demand continues to be driven by portable electronic products such as smart phones and tablet computers,― said Lee Wai Kwong, CEO, ASM.
Leadframes benefited from improved market demand, lower raw material prices, and operational improvements, ASM reported. The company also moved its leadframe packaging users to floating prices.
ASM delivered a leadframe packaging set up -- equipment and leadframes -- for 100 x 300mm leadframes to a packaging customer in Q2. This is currently the widest leadframe on the market and therefore cost-efficient, ASM said. The equipment had to overcome specific production and packaging challenges with this leadframe matrix size.
Also read: Contemporary semiconductor packaging experts open up on cost, covering Leroy A. Christie, ASM Pacific, presenting on large leadframe matrices at SEMICON West.
ASM Pacific Technology Limited provides semiconductor assembly and packaging equipment, as well as SMT equipment. Learn more at www.asmpacific.com.
Visit the Advanced Packaging Channel of Solid State Technology, and sign up for our Advanced Packaging News e-newsletter!
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HK Snob

Epoxy Bond Line thickness control

Epoxy is widely been used as a material to hold the die securely onto the substrate, lead frame which act as means to dissipate the heat energy generate by the chip operations. After Die attach, we need to cure the epoxy under certain temperature and time.

There is a need to control the bond line as there is significant performance contributed by the BLT (Bond Line Thickness)

Die attach media

Epoxy, Silver epoxy, non-conductive adhesive, soft solder, DAF (die attach film),

CTE

Different material has different rate of expansion on different temperature.

Copper has a much faster expansion than silicon. And matching of the die and substrate is necessary but not possible to be perfect unless same material is being used. As LED is afraid of heat, 5 degrees lower the LED junction teamperature will able to prolong 5,000 hours of the LED life time, hence Semileds has made copper layer on bottom of the high power LEDs at wafer fab. Stage which can be used on copper substrates for perfect conduction of heat.

Whereas for IC DA process consideration, an optimum of the die material and substrate by means of different type of DA media and the thickness of it is needed.

Effect of the Bond line thickness

Too thick the epoxy will reduce the effect heat conduction from the chip to the substrate. Too thin of the epoxy layer will reduce the cushion effect, in other words, the die and substrates will expand in different rate that the epoxy layer could not absorb the deformation or warp page. Or, under high temperate there is a high chance for the chip to be fully detached and or partly detached from the substrates, thus create hot spots thus the heat dissipation rate is reduced, the operation temperature of the chip will increase and hence shorten life of the chip or even cause premature failure.

Optimum thickness of epoxy is needed for optimizing the bond strength, heat dissipation and to ensure long life time of the package.

More powerful chip is made than before, an integrated circuit of 1mmx1mm contained 1,000 transistors in the 70s' same size of chip nowadays contain 5 millions. However the design of the package material has not much different, nor improvement at all.

Automotive requirement

Automotive are the toughest test site for an integrated circuit. The temperature of Sahara is 80 degree C in day and -20 at night, the car and their IC package will experience thousand s of temperature cycles every year The requirement for a bond line control as one of the key requirement. Twenty years ago the bond line for general purpose IC package of small power is considered loose. Partly because the available die attach machine was not able to provide such kind of accuracy. Recently, tendency of controlling the BLT is tighter and tighter from CpK 1.33 then 1,67 and even 2.0.

Now there is almost a standard demand for a tight control on the epoxy thickness. Typically SOIC, PBGA or TSSOP, the equipment qualification list has a BLT control of min. 0.4 mil and not more than 0.8 mil with capability index of 2.0 or more. A standard deviation of more than 6 micron will fail to meet this requirement. 

Epoxy

Epoxy has an imminent effect on the stability of the BLT, as if Epoxy is expired, not properly thawed, or very short pot life, that will contribution to inconsistency of epoxy dispensed, which in turn will after the volume of the epoxy. Machine wise, a highly consistent epoxy dispensing amount with continuous compensation over the hours is needed.

Some epoxy is very viscous and the die can be used up after the die is left on the epoxy, on the other hand for low viscosity epoxy, it is hard to make a very high BLT as it tends to smear after die is placed on the substrate

Geometry of the Epoxy dispensing nozzle

The factors affecting the performance of a dispensing needle has been investigated.  It is found that the geometry of the needle (especially the length) has substantial impact on the characteristic of needles performance. In general, longer needles have a better capability to resist the dripping effect when handling a less viscous epoxy (say 3,500cps).  However, a longer needle needs higher driving-pressure in order to dispense the same amount of epoxy when compared to a short needle. Besides, a short needle usually can give a faster response when compared to a long needle. From the past analysis, it seems that the tailing effect is not related to the length of the needle, but actually it is related to the wetting-surface-area on the needle and contact angle of epoxy.

Challenge on Material Variation

Current die bonder does not able to tell the variation of substrates thickness and die thickness; to achieve the BLT of CpK 2.0 is more or less like we throw a dart on the red target with folded eyes.

Challenge on Set-up

The Pick level, ejector level, bond level has interactive effect on the BLT, die tilting and placement (Die Rotation), hence it is a sweating job to achieve certain BLT process window, plus measurement o the bonded units for confirmation, it is really tedious to pass any production requirement on BLT at CpK 2.0

What can we do?

To ensure the high repeatability of machine in maintaining high capability index on epoxy... there is a need to have some means to detect the substrate thickness and at same time die thickness.

Methodology

In order to have good control over the BLT, the substrates thickness and die thickness has to be known in advance before the attach.

Bond head accuracy

Linear Z travel is needed, soft landing bond Z is an added advantage.

However the bonding Z motion should be precise at micron level, or least there is a high repeatability z motion.  

UPH concern

Likely the machine UPH should have been affected in performing the accurate BLT.

All new Die attach equipment should have this precise Control on BLT.

HK Snob

World most prominent partner for your IC, Discrete and LED assembly

ASM has produced some of the semiconductor assembly equipment that has made an impact to the world semiconductor industry since 1975.

The Camera module in-line system, about 54% of world CMOS Sensor on your camera is in fact assembled by the ASM solution. Likely your hand phone cameras module was once assembled by ASM equipment. As the larger the number of Pixel on the CMOS sensor, the smaller the foreign particle down to size of 1.5 microns that the CMOS sensor can not tolerate this contamination. As ASM is the only company that has in-line -solution from Die bonding, curing wire bonder, inspection and lens holder attached line with full clean cell solution to prevent FM contamination. Top 3 World EMS company is in fact the users.

Numerous ASIC, SOIC, BGA and QFN was in fact made by ASM auto-line which has only 2 operators to take care one line each produces 8,000 to 10,000 assembled chip with dies at the input and fully functionable IC chips were made at the output… the whole process has undergone Die bonding, curing, wire bonding, inspection, molding, saw singulation, test auto inspection and taping…The turn around time from a new production wafer to finished assembly chip is possible to be made within 30 hours. Only Auto-line can do that.

Industry first auto molding system that can deliver 170Tons Clamping tonnage at the same time handle world largest 100MMx 300MM leadframe size… a few machine are being running in qualification mode in one of the World Largest Subcon houses , with this Hi Density Lead frame solution, the cost of the leadframe, encapsulation compounds could be saved, and that is becoming additive to your profit… the Only way to move into volume production devices like SOIC, TSSOP and in future QFN…

Dual head Flip Chip bonder, dual Dispenser 12 inch Die bonder, and precision die bonder for stack die on 12” wafers. Dual head copper wire bonders for the QFN application, that one US IDM is using the Copper wire bonder for assembling more than 6 million ICs a day.

Not less than 50% of world hi brightness LED is likely using ASM LED equipment for assembly production. Well, the low power LED below 0.2W is different area as there are more choice of equipment from Taiwan, China, and other makers at much lower cost besides ASM. Still ASM is the leader in the LED assembly as they have 25 years experience in designing, manufacturing the LED bonding, testing and assembling equipment.

If you are going Copper from Gold wire, if you are running SOIC, TSSOP with low profit margin, if you are building CIS Camera Module for no matter Apple and Samsung. If you are not using ASM equipment,, it may be good for you to contact ASM for more technical information. This may be a way for helping you to increase your profit margin. Today’s economy situation is dull, and yet this might be the best time for you to Invest…as you may get a better terms of delivery, price...support.

HK Snob

HK International Airport Luggage Claim area goes LED

From What I saw the HKIA luggage claim area,  the ceiling lighting now all LED.

There are 13 luggage lane 21 and each lane has about 21 x4 tubes.

Each tube may contain 200 LED with 0.15 watts so the power rating of one tubes is 30Wattes.

21 groups x30 Watt X4 sets X13 luggage lanes equal to 32,760Watts

For those 1,092 tubes

32,760 watts x18 hours x 356 days = 209 Mwatts

1 watts is 1.1 HKD.  That is an equivalent of HKD$230,918.00 for electric fee a year.

If that is CCFL of 60Watts, that will be $430.918.00

The cost of the LED Tubes is about HKD$350, x 1092= $382,200

So it does need only two years to recover the cost of the LED tubes installation.

Do not forget the life time of the LED lighting is 40,000 hours. That saves a lot of cost for the replacement. If using CCFL tubes, its will have to replace the tubes almost every one here and there… as the life time of the CCFL tube is 12,000 hours only.

So in short, this is a good investment for using LED in Airport, and this save a lot of electricity, replacement cost, and tons of CO2 emission a year.

The above figure is purely my estimation as I can not go into detail to see the construction of the LED tubes a it was hanging 20 metres high!

HKIA Snob

LED Market Trend 2010- 2014

Overheat 2010 Market

After the crazy pursuit of LED build in 2010 and oversupply in 2011 that suppressed 2012 fabrication, LED makers would have seen a more or less leveling out of supply and demand. Demand is seeing drifting from LCD-backlit LEDs to LED for lighting.

2011 2012 Oversupply

In 2011, due to a combination of slower sales growth in LED-backlit LCD TV and slower growth in chips-per-backlight, much improved LED lighting efficiency and light guide efficiency. The demand for LEDs in LCD backlights did grow merely slightly, as tablet PCs goes larger and stronger penetration growth in LCD monitors*1 made up for the slash in demand from LED TV. Growth was also modest in lighting segment, as the market penetration of LEDs only grew from 1.4% in 2010 to 1.9% in 2011.

New Players

Many new LED suppliers have entered this market with rapid ramping up production. Chip size of 500um² supply grew by 41% in 2011, compared to only 10% growth in demand. This resulted in another significant oversupply. At Same time the LED Chip MOCVD installations were either on halt or delayed.

Further ASP Drops in 2012

LEDs have been in surplus since the Oct of 2010, setting the stage for a decrease in LED prices and profit margin drastically. As a result, there has been almost no new investment in LED applications, nor any significant capacity increases in 2012. This is resulting in a 50% drop of the supply/demand glut from 2011 to 2012.

LED 2013

We speculate that Demand from LCD backlights will continue to dominate LED demand until end 2012, when it will reach its peak. Due to the growing popularity of advance, low-cost direct-LED backlight designs for LCD TVs, the demand for LEDs in backlights will continue to increase through 2013. While the number of LED packages per LCD backlight unit will be at peak in 2012, continuing to growth in penetration of LED backlights will lead to a small insignificant growth in 2013.

LED 2014

By 2014, lighting by LED will become the major demand for LEDs as price reductions will be really attractive to most of the end users and at the same time efficacy improvements drive for an increased adoption.

The penetration of LEDs in lighting will reach 17% in 2015, according to LED Market Forecast Report.

Lighting LED situation Highlight

Spotlights and LED street lights will gain higher penetration in lighting segment due to government incentive programs which acted as the major LED driver as in China 2009. The 12th Five-Year Plan in China and the LED subsidy policy in Taiwan, as well as continued growth in commercial applications. LED bulbs and fluorescent tubes are growing in Japan due to government incentive programs and energy-saving consciousness, especially following the March 2011 earthquake.

Pricing strategy

Philips recently made an aggressive offer of less 50% for the new 10W LED light bulb for a low price as $25, and that is a big impact for the market, and I believe other major key players will observe and adjust the price at the same time.

Sapphire Substrate Supply

Rubicon’s major income on 2H 11 was coming from 6” Sapphire substrates, due to the inventory of LED substrates is high. The 1H 12 Sales will not be promising for 6” Substrates. However we could see tat SoS (silicon on sapphire) market grows 2 times from 1Q12 as comparing with Q4 11. We will see that 2H 12 Would enjoy certain growth on this 6” SoS substrates.

Rubicon will try to maintain competitive price, and they might reduce cost 20% in 2013 to maintain the profit level.

China RMB26.5bn Home appliance Subsidies

China announces new home appliance subsidies; potential for LCD TV market to expand; China's State Council announced a RMB26.5bn subsidy program for household electrical appliances on 17 May.

The program will be in effect for one year, and target air conditioners, flat-panel television sets, refrigerators, washing machines and water heaters. The program also earmarks RMB2.2bn for LED and other energy-saving light bulbs and LEDs.’

LED Equipment demand

If we assume the government is planning on subsidizing ~50% of LED bulb cost, assuming an average pre-subsidy price per LED bulb of ~$7, and assuming China accounts for ~20% of the worldwide bulb market, this subsidy would translate to ~104M bulbs or ~5% of China's bulb demand.

Summary

Like what we had mentioned that in the previous report, the Q4 2012 will be the turning point for the LED to move up from valley into a more or less higher growth rate after 2 years of quietness. Main driver is LED lighting. Many of the LEDMaker equipment utilization is still running at 60-75% range, with the new lighting bulb demand and China Incentive to support LED. We will see some bigger demand of LED manufacturing equipment by Oct. 2012. LED market will keep on growing 2013-2014

HK Snob