What will be the LED package Trend in 2011?

Currently we can see that there is a standardization of Packaging for LED using ceramic Substrate as base material . As probably there is a serious drive of the development of LED chip efficacy, package development and as the same time great break through of the LED manufacturing equipment that is able to provide a more precise bonding equipment of these big players.

Rebel , XP , Oslon , the smallest footprint of LED, with the dimension range of 3-4mm range.

With the improving efficacy of LED of 161Lm/W in lab and probably 90lm/watt at mass production model, The chip it self may take up 60% of the cost of the package, without any futher breakthrough for the Chip design there is no way to further lower down the package is of the LED.

We can see that there are two approaches; first we speculate that there will be more smaller chip and more lumen/watt., if say we can reduce the ship size by 40% and increasing the lumen /watt by 30%. That will be an equivalent of improving cost of 64%. On the other hand, if this is no longer a technological barrier by reducing the chip size to say 0.6mmx 0.6mm. The packages can be reduced from 3mmx 3mm down to a size of 1.5x 1.5mm. That is an equivalent saving of 75% ceramic substrate. So as the use of epoxy, of flux, or the length of the gold wire will be able to reduce by more than 20% estimated, in such as case the total cost reduction of the LED will be more than 70%. Bear in mind that if the chip is smaller, the chip may have a higher efficacy of say 35% instead of 25%. Such smaller chip size will enable the fixture designer to pack more LEDs in same space. In other word; the light intensity per square mm is higher. This matches with the market requiement of a lower cost LED package and higher efficacy.

And that is a Must for General lighting using LED SSL.
So I think that people will work on this design approach, however there will put the burden n to the equipment supplier as the die bonder will be required to tackle the following challenge.
Denser LED per panel of ceramic substrates, the LED placement will be required higher accuracy say in the range of +/-15 microns
The Epoxy control has to be more precise as there is more challenge to handle a smaller die without causing any EOD (Epoxy On Die), coverage, void issues and Epoxy bridging.
The Liquid moulding would be more challenging as there will be more than 5,000 LEDs estimated on a single 2" x 4" Panel, but on the other hand as the lens population is higher we enjoy more output per shot per panel at the Moulding stage.

On the other hand, more and more Multi chip design would happen to be seen due to the need to have some precise adjustment on the lighting balance. There is a need to put multi colour LED for use as Architecture lighting. But this would be a smaller production volume as this will be of high manufacturing cost. And this consists more than 1 die, and this is multi pass bonding process, or we have to use Multi-Chip bonder to handle multi chip bonding on the substrates.

Note: "All Figures are of rough estimation for ease of explanation"