Thursday, January 14, 2010
How is the Electronics and Semiconductor Business in 2010?
Various media has made comment and forecast on Semiconductor business in 2010. This is an executive summary in various semiconductor articles issued by EE Time on 14 Jan.
Biz Forecast for 2010
1. We are at the beginning of a recovery, a long, slow recovery in production in most regions and industries.
2 . Production and consumer declines reached lows in mid 2009. Financial crisis revealed excess physical capital for underlying demand. We're in a long adjustment period, to repair and rebalance the global economic system.
3. Recovery drivers: monetary policy, low interest rates, bank rescue packages, massive fiscal stimulus packages, relatively low commodity prices, inventory correction cycle over, and a slow build up of pent-up demand.
4. Worldwide GDP is expected to hit 2.7 in 2010, compared to minus 2.1 in 2009. The worldwide industrial production index is expected to hit 3.5 in 2010, compared to minus 10 in 2009.
5. Regional recovery differences may be sharp. Asia grows, led by China, India; Japan lags North America modest gains on relatively weaker consumer spending. Europe protracted weakness.
6. Slow recovery in U.S. computer growth. PC spending momentum turned positive in October 2009. (2009 growth: minus 11.1 percent; 2010: plus 1.6 percent; 2011: plus 6.3 percent).
7. Semiconductors recover sooner than other industries, up sharply in 2010 and regaining 2008 levels of activity in 2011. Semiconductor full recovery in 2011.
8. The China Automobile Industrial Organization Data shown on 11 Jan. The total New car sales in 2009 was 13,648,000. With an annual Growth of 46% over the year 2008. That number has outperformed USA. China now is the world largest market for Car.
World largest Shipment broker Clarkson latest data tells us that China has gained total 3,490,000 Tons CGT that is 44.4% of the world total tonnage, over taken Hyundai heavy industry as the World Largest Ship building industry.
By our forecast by, 2020, China will be the World largest Consumer market that will surpass USA as the World No. 1 Consumer market.
10 Tech to watch in 2010
1. Biofeedback or thought-control of electronics
2. Printed electronics
3. Plastic memory
4. Maskless lithography
5. Parallel processing
6. Energy harvesting
7. Bio-electronics and wetware
8. Resistive RAM or the memristor
9. The through-silicon via
10. Various battery technologies.
10 hot applications in 2010
2. The Smart Power Grid
3. Roll to Roll
5. Bring the hospital Home
6. Android Invasion
7. Building the bionic human
8. Touchy subjects: screens for portables
9. 3-D bursts into the living room
Top 25 predictions for semis in 2010
1. IC forecast: Funny money demand?
2. Yawn. Another fab tool downturn
3. Solar hype--again?
6. Intel and NAND
7. Samsung to turn upside down
8. Toshiba exits foundry biz
9. Foundry fools
I0. China's foundry industry flops
11. DRAM blues
12. Micron's fate
13. x86 wars
14. Advanced Middle East Devices rolls
15. Legal bill blues
16. National goes national
17. Let's Free Scale!
18. NXP sells itself this time
19. Microcontroller mess
20. 450-mm on ice
21. EUV does not see the light
22. Immersion is not wet
23. New packages
24. Solar or bust
25. New lows for high-k
Who's on the hot seat?
In 2010, He sees a lot of CEOs on the hot seat, based on the performances of their companies in recent times. These CEOs won't necessarily lose their jobs, but they face an inordinate amount of challenges. Their performances will be watched like a hawk. Here's my list:
*Steve Appleton, Micron's chairman and CEO. A make or break year?
*Yasushi Akao, president of Renesas. He will become president of the combined Renesas-NEC Electronics entity, which faces some nightmarish integration issues.
*Peter Bauer, Infineon's member of the management board and CEO. Can company recover from DRAM snafu?
*Rich Beyer, Freescale's chairman and CEO. Has the company run out of time?
*Robert Bruggeworth, president and CEO of RF Micro. Can company recover from downturn?
*Geesung Choi, Samsung Electronics' president and CEO. Looking over shoulder? (Jay Y. Lee is being groomed for the post. Lee is the only son of Lee Kun Hee, the former Samsung chairman.)
*Richard Clemmer, NXP's president and CEO. What's next?
*David Dutton, Mattson's president and CEO. Tough times for fab tool firm.
*Chuck del Prado, ASMI's president and CEO. Changes in the wind? *Anthony Holbrook, MIPS' interim president and CEO. Who will step in tough spot?
*Jen-Hsun Huang, Nvidia's president and CEO. Has magic touch run out?
*J.K. Kim, Hynix' president and CEO. Who will buy Korean company?
*John Kispert, Spansion's CEO. Can company emerge from Chapter 11?
*Steven Laub, Atmel's president and CEO. Is restructuring over?
*Dirk Meyer, AMD's president and CEO. Can the losses continue?
*Haruo Matsuno, Advantest's CEO. ATE giant losing ground.
*Paul Otellini, Intel's president and CEO. Intel continues to dominate, but not on the legal front.
*Mary Puma, Axcelis' president and CEO. Tough times for ion implanter supplier.
*Yukio Sakamoto, president and CEO of Elpida. Can he keep the ship afloat?
*Shih-Wei Sun, United Microelectronics Corp.'s CEO. UMC is in danger of falling behind.
*David N.K. Wang, SMIC's president and CEO. Can he turn the losing tide?