Sunday, June 6, 2010

LED SSL year will begin in 2012-2014

Left to Right, 18W Incandescent Lamp, 3W LED G19 Light Bump, 100Watt W19 Incandescent Lamp
Back light unit is the major driver for the LED booming since Q2 09.
This is the fact that 2009-2012 would be the year of LED Backlight year.

How about the SSL? Are we trying to say that 2011-204 will be SSL LED Lighting?

Since Thomas Edison created the world’s greatest lighting invention Incandescent lamp 130 years ago, it has Luminous Efficacy of only 0.7%-5.1%. Cold Fluorescent lamp of power rating of 9-26W Luminous Efficacy is 9-11%. The LED Luminous Efficacy is 20-28%, it is highest amongst amount all, though many scientists are still working on for more.

Life Time of Incandescent lamp is 1,000 hours, and CFL 10,000-20,000 Hours. A good LED with proper thermal design would have a life time of 40,000-60,000 Hours.

The fact behind the scene is that people starts to refuse to use CFL as it contains mercury whihc creats heavy pollutions to the environment. We had no other better choice before, now we have the LED solution in a form of commercial commodities.

Recently, ClSA did 600 cases as a on line survey, they found that 80% of respondents are not willing to buy LED light bulbs unless retail price is lower than USD10.00. 70% would consider buying LED light bulb if their payback period is within 1 year.

Presently, the Retail sales price of 3W LED light bulb is HKD$80.00, an equivalent lighting intensity is the same as an 18W incandescent lamp. Assuming 10 hours/day and the saving on electric bill a year will be:

(18-3)x10x365/1000 xHKD$1.0-HKD$6.00= HKD$49.00

That is to say a 3W LED light bulb would take 1.5 years for payback.

Referring to the power measurement on LED replacement lamp and the T5 CFL tube found that the power saving is 24.9W

 Price of LED replacement tube is HKD$200.00 Vs Philips T5 at HKD$25.00 in Hong Kong.
With a power saving is 24.9W an hour.

24.9Wx10 hoursx365Days/1000x HKD$1.0=HKD$91.00
It takes about 2 years for payback.

What a Bright Idea to Change!

The LED replacement lamp was 40X more expensive than Incandescent lamp 2 years ago, now it about 10X . We can see that the ASP of LED replacement is dropping at such a rate that the payback time will be less than 1 year in 2012. Refer to the attach chart I plotted base on the average price of 3W LED G19 Light bulb.

Base on this rate the 3W LED replacement light bulb will be about HKD60.00 by end of the year and further reduce to HKD$40 in Q2 2011.

Under this estimation, we can see that the ASP of LED replacement is dropping at such a rate that the payback time will be less than 1 year in 2012. That will be a right timing for the SSL lighting to be truly becoming a commercial commodity, and could be displaying in the supermarket side by side with the CFL… and I am sure that the Incandescent lamp would becoming something collectible…

As a summary, I foresee that the SSL will be in the adoption rate of 10% in 2012 and gradually increasing from 15% in 2013 and 25% in 2014.


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