Let’s look for the big LED players for their recent product plan after market of Backlight has been slowing down.
According to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets data. By end 2011, total 262M sets of LCD TV would be produced in 2011, which is more 23% as of 2010’s 164M sets. They expect that the LCD sales penetration will be widened when the ASP further being suppressed when Panel Price drops!
LGE forecasts LG Electronics will increase 2011 LED TV Sales by 40% following the drop of ASP. They will push 35M LCD TV units in 2011 which is 40% more that the target of 25M units sales in 2010. On the other hand, Plasma TV sales will be pushed from 29M to 40M unit in 2011.
LED TV is about 20% of Total TV shipment in 2010. And this number will be increased to 60% in 2011 according to LGE studies.According to the home entertainment senior executives, LGE would push the sales in last 2H or 2010 and not too difficult at all to achieve the target sales of 40M sets in 2010. They will launch out high end TV such as 8mm LED TV, 3D TV and Smart TV. They may forecast that 1/3 of the TV would be SmartTV!
Samsung has a special business culture and history, whenever there is crisis like scenario, they will do all kind of risk management and invest in such a low season for the next growth. Same case for SmartTV during their recent consortium presented by Chief of Samsung Electronics. LGE and Samsung is always striving for their best effort to keep them ahead the other in the sales races. LGE is the biggest rival in the commercial sector, if LGE will push out 40M TV in 2011, I do think that Samsung will not lose his monarch of sales to LGE… Definitely, they are working all around the groups with more new product launch to maintain the No. 1 Sales Position.
7th Sept, Mr. Zhang Xue Bin, Executive Chairman and CEO of Skyworth, China's 4th Largest LCD TV makers told to the Hong Kong media and investors that during the April-May LCD TV old stock purging action by selling at a low price. After World Club came to an end we had slash of the TV sales unless there is new stimulus campaign. Skyworth's CFO said that In China, there are approximately 6M sets of LCD TV what had been servicing for 5-6 years. There is a necessity and need for replacement with by new LCD TVs, amongst these 6Millions sets, there are at least 48M to 72M sets of them would go for LED Backlight units. These actions of new TV purchase will not stop for next 12 months!
LED TV becomes normalized as a standard terms for LCD TV Backlight TV in Japan when its Penetration rate climbed from 2.5% in January 2010 to 43.3% in August. Whilst the 3D TV is more than just a gadget as its penetration rate is merely 1.4% mainly due to the stringy and trivial attraction. The LED has successfully depressed the use of CCFL. The Penetration rate of CCFL was 97.1% in August 2009 dropping down to 56.7% In August of 2010. Of course, Japan is a energy and environmental sensitive country, helps to push LED as a leverage than CCFL.
At the same time, the ASP of LED TV drops vertically, a 40” model was selling at USD$4,315.00 in August 2009 down 60% in August 2010. LED TV is no longer the term for hi tech TV, instead, it is a standard feature in Japan’s consumers. As for the sales performance, Sharp is occupying 46.6%, followed by Sony, Panasonic and Toshiba..
The India TV market has big potential for flat panel TVs to grow in 2011 and beyond. Developed regions like Japan, US and Europe will complete the transition to flat panel TVs by the end of 2011 or first half of 2012, when most Analog Broadcasting System will be cut off. Although Samsung and LGE continue to be strong in emerging markets, Sony has approached the Indian flat panel TV market successfully with strong brand awareness and appropriate products for the Indian consumer. Sony increased its unit share of flat panel TVs to 27.1% in Q2’10 and took top share position in the Indian market. The total TV market in India for 2009 was around 13.8M units, making it the third-largest country market for TVs in the world, ahead of Japan and Brazil, and accounting for 37% of the Asia Pacific TV market.
Unity Opto and Epistar
With the CCFL flight back with an attractive price as leverage, original LED TV penetration expectation was 30% for 2010. According to Unity Opto ‘s (LED BLU manufacturer in Taiwan) forecast the new penetration rate is 15%-20% for 2010. Whereas Epistar (Taiwanese largest LED Chip maker) forecast will be to 20% to 25%. However Epistar would be optimistic for 2011 as Korean would be trigger launch of new model with more attractive features, and at Same Time China will be a big marker demand for LED TV. He is very optimistic to see that all year penetration rate will be touching 50% in 2011.
2011 will be the LED TV Era
LCD TV shipments in the first half of 2010 have been below expectations, but it is still possible to have a strong second half performance. Recent declines in panel prices will probably lead to low Q4 set prices, driving increases in unit demand. Even CRT had a better-than-expected result in Q2’10, as emerging markets purchased inexpensive sets for the World Cup. I believe that the Big Players like Samsung, LGE, Sony, Toshiba and Chinese band like Hisense, TCL, Konka and Skyworth, Changhong will carry on shipping out more cost effective LCD TV by end of the year, I can expect that the peak sales would be somewhere mid December to end of the year!
Next year, I think the sales if the LED TV would move up to another heights of record as more 3D featured TV and Smart TV will be available, Smart TV to be the home entertainment centre for some of the technology lovers. LED TV cost will be lowered by another 25%-30% as we can buy now. Brighter with lesser LED be more effective light transmission would be the main stream, that will be the evergreen product as a result of the latest LED technology with least power consumption, mercury free and reasonable beautiful picture quality. The 40% Reduction in number of LED usage on the BLU would be significant to cool down the heat for more assembly equipment. However, an era for LED truly penetration of 40% could be found across all sized… with 32”-40” will be the most popular size as an average. As an overall state of the LED needed to support on the BLU is sill on the positive side.
By First of December I will expect LED TV sales Slogan happened to be “Buy one get one free!” If you buy a 55” ED TV they will give you another 32” TV Free for your study room.
The BLU market momentum would get stabilized in end November and gradually regain the power for growing up till Mid 2011 unless there is some other unforeseen cause for slash.