Sunday, January 31, 2010

LED Back light LCD TV Market 2010

The year 2010 to 2012 will be the world of Back Light Unit and their LEDs

This is the forecast of the LED Back light TV and the LED markets

LED LCD TV expected to Grow to 32M units in 2010


3.6M LED LCD TVs in 2009- Samsung Lead the Industry with 68.3% Market Share

32M LED LCD TVs Expected in 2010 representing 19% of All LCD TVs

156M LED LCDTVs Expected in 2013 representing 69.1% of All LCD TVs

From 2008 to 2013, Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for LED LCD TV Expected at 272%

In 2009, 3.6M LED LCD TVs were sold and Samsung Electronics led the market by comprising 68.3% market share. Samsung Electronics had shown consistent LED LCD TV product development and marketing strategy based on its edge-type backlighting technology from the first quarter of 2009. Based on this consistency, Samsung Electronics was able to represent 7 out of 10 LED LCD TVs in terms of global demand.

Global LED LCD TV

Estimated shipment for LED TV

Samsung 10M LED TV (29%) of 35M LCD TV

LG 5-7M LED TV of 23-25M LCD TV

Sony 5-7M LED TV of 22-25M LED TV

Sharp 6M LED TV of 12M LCD TV

Toshiba 6M LED TV of 13M LCD TV

Philips 4M LED TV of 10M LCD TV

Hisense 3M LED Tv of M LCD TV

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

What should we do about LED in 2010-2015?

Some people would have argued that it's been a tough time since 15 Sep 2008 till recently that we see some signs of rebound on IC. Most IC business experts agree that things have changed forever. However, as we have said in the past, change is neither intrinsically good nor bad in all cases. It is almost always an opportunity and that is certainly true for the future semiconductor industry! Recalling 2009, especially 1H, I think of how close we were to economic Armageddon in the last one year. For far too long, the global economy has rewarded short-termism.

2010 is about maintaining our Bull’s-eye on being good wealth God has given us. We face exciting challenges of being a global company, ingenuity and discipline is needed to ensure synergy and cross-fertilization between our operations locally and abroad, marketing through production, engineering and R&D development, Sales and Service.

2009 Samsung LED TV Inspiration
Marketing studies is essential and influential for our future product planning. The product launch timing is essential as what I learnt from Samsung on their LED TV programme, as reflected in “Samsung and Sony”, knowing that the best selling Electronics stuff is like Sashimi in Sushi bar, has to be kept Fresh and it is able to be sold expensively.

From Clayton M. Christensen’s “The Innovator’s Dilemma”, we learnt from Conner Peripherals, which pioneered and maintained the lead in selling 3.5” drives to portable computer makers, fundamentally changed the way drive makers had to approach the portables marker, as one Conner Executives described it. : from the beginning of the OEM disk driver industry, product development had proceeded in three sequential steps, First you design the drive then you make it; and then you sell it, They changed it all. They first sell the drives; then they design them. And then they build them. Whereas Seagate was never able to figure out how to sell drives on the portable market, they just never got it!
Business Forecast for 2010
We are at the beginning of a long and slow recovery in production of most regions and industries. Production and consumer declines reached lows in mid 2009. Financial crisis revealed excess physical capital for underlying demand. We're in a long adjustment period, to repair and rebalance the global economic system. Low interest rates, monetary policy, bank rescue packages, massive fiscal stimulus packages, relatively low commodity prices, inventory correction cycle over, and a slow build up of pent-up demand are the main economic drivers.

With the Worldwide GDP is expected to hit 2.7 in 2010, compared to minus 2.1 in 2009. The worldwide industrial production index is expected to reach 3.5 in 2010, compared to minus 10 in 2009! Regional recovery differences may be sharp. Asia grows, led by China, India; Japan lags North America modest gains on relatively weaker consumer spending. Europe protracted weakness.

Slow recovery in U.S. computer growth, PC spending momentum turned positive in October 2009. (2009 growth: minus 11.1 percent; 2010: plus 1.6 percent; 2011: plus 6.3 percent).

So as a summary, we should have a positive speculation on 2010 that should be a good year for all electronics and consumer business. LCD BLU will be the dominant player in term of revenue and growth. The shipment of LED BLU LCD TV will be in the range for approx. 10% ( my number) as penetration rate for all TV.

In 2009, the total number of shipment is only 2.9% which is approximately 2.7M sets. That is 3 times in terms of growth. Laptop will be using almost 100% LED as the LCD TV BLU. Total number of LED required is approx 19B pcs.

LED in this period will be obviously, explosively growing!
LED for general Lighting obviously, explosively growing, but a milder explosion

Forecast 2010-2015
The total New car sales in 2009 was 13,648,000 with an annual Growth of 46% over the year 2008. That number has outperformed USA. China now is the world largest market for Car.

World largest Shipment broker Clarkson latest data tells us that China has gained total 3,490,000 Tons CGT that is 44.4% of the world total tonnage, over taken Hyundai heavy industry as the World Largest Ship building industry.

By our forecast by, 2020, China will be the World largest Consumer market that will surpass USA as the World No. 1 Consumer market.

From 2010 to 2015, we will see China a tremendous growth of Economy, Hong Kong, being an important Southern Window, spring board into China as Asian office Head quarters, central management office for Logistics and Finance. Provided if there are less political chaos or minimum China political influence, Hong Kong should be one of the major beneficiate for the economics.

9 hot applications in 2010

1. LED Backlight LCD TV

2. LED for general illumination as stepping stone into SSL

3. SSL

4. E-book ,Touchy subjects: screens for portables

5. Solar Energy application

6. Roll to Roll technology

7. Picoprojectors,

8. Health care product- More people affording to pay more for medical care product

9. Android Invasion

The 10 technologies to watch out.

1. Biofeedback or thought-control of electronics

2. Printed electronics and jetting technology

3. Plastic memory

4. Maskless lithography

5. Parallel processing

6. Energy harvesting

7. Bio-electronics and wetware

8. Resistive RAM or the memristor

9. The through-silicon via

10. Various new battery technologies.

MEMS, OLED and 3DTV
I would not speculate MEMS, OLED & 3DTV will become dominant attraction in the 3-5 years. As MEMS is more or less an individual product design and some how IP will tie up their patent not allow others to copy, also their are similar kind of MEMS can be of replacement consideration.

OLED will be only gaining market size on small hand held display less than 7” dia. There will be another 10 years for LCD TV to survive before the OLED technology can overtake LCD with cost and good yield on larger screen up to TV..

3D TV will have to struggle for a number of years for industrial standardization. 3D TV will likely be a resurgence of laser-projection TVs! This is more or less he Betamax and VHS in 1980 that would not come to a hit until a commercialization occupancy could kick off this programme with commercial driving benefit.

LED BLU
LED BLU will be an explosive growth in 2010-2014 and this BLU is actually a stepping-stone to SSL. We can not ignore the Flash & Projection in mobile phones & cameras for the next 5 yrs. Like PicoProjector has become a product of its own and it may go for total 3 Million sets for sales in 2010.

What shall we do in 2010-2015?
Mid-term there's a big triangular constellation out there - that's the combination of Solar, Storage & SSL. Somehow the 'missing link' is the Storage (battery and new battery technology with good efficiency and more environmental friendly) technology - that's a must for true "Autarkic Systems" to work.

BLU migrating into SSL technology
This is the first time in the History of business that you can be great at what you’re re doing today and be out of business tomorrow.
Ken Benchard

We know that as SSL develops and Solar prices stabilize then the constellation will come together... that may be happening in year 2014. Hopefully we can well prepare in advance for the technology.

As for long term the SSL will become more in penetration in the market and ASP will drop 15% per year….
The HBLED market grow will be resumed in 2010 and a CAGR of 19.3% till 2013 with revenue of $12.4B. 2010-2015.

The LED illumination market in architectural applications is domi¬nated by early adopters. Less than 5% of the potential architectural applications being specified in 2006 used LED fixtures. Around 9% in 2007, 14% in 2008, by 2012, Estimated almost 25% of the potential applications will have converted to LEDs. Though I think this figure is a bit too optimistic.

We can see that there were no LED replacement bulbs in the HK market in 2008. Now you can find more shops are promoting and selling them. It is becoming a momentum to start and soon becoming a bigger market that only takes a couple of years. When you can see LED replacement tight bulb in Welcome and Park’n. That will be the time. I foresee that base on what we are working on, we can have such branded 7W LED light bulbs selling At USD$5.00 to USD$8.00 in 2011.

The reason why we can not have more cost effective LED light bulb available in the market is partly due to the Efficiency of LED is still far below our expectation of 60% plus the volume of the LED is not able to keep the ASP down below a X2 value formula ( Price of LED light bulb to be 3X or less than incandescent lamp)

Incandescent lamp is having Luminous Efficacy of 0.7%-5.1% depending on the design and wattage of the light bulb, Fluorescent light is having a much high efficiency such as 9-26W compact Fluorescent lamp is 9-11%. However, LED is in the range of 20-27% which is two times higher. Well, the technology is non-stopping, thousands of scientists are seeking on numerous way to increasing the lighting Luminous efficiency by employing the following improvement. The target of more than 60% is not a dream one day as we can see that there is huge R&D team has been working on.

What should do as for long term action
We may go into a stragety and look for opportunity for these technology Packaging technology
-Novel Process
-Thermal management
-Lead frame material
-CTE balance
-Phosphor spraying
-Phosphor application
-Material Studies
-Phosphor efficiency
-Chip Design and Chip material
-AC LED design
-Driver design and power supply

Wish List
Hope that we can manage to create more innovation on LED assembly cost reduction. More National stimulus programme to support Green LED development, More Chip maker and LED packaging team can reduce the cost of a 1W LED to less than USD$0.20. Then we can see that your and my houses are prone to be using all LED as the Solid State Lighting!

feverip

Friday, January 15, 2010

Samsung and LG LED projector use Luminus PlatLight LEDs


LED maker Luminus Devices has supplied the light source for Samsung’s new XGA (1024 x 768 pixels) LED data projector, described as the industry’s first LED-powered data projector. The Samsung device, introduced at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, NV, uses Luminus’ PhlatLight PT-120 LEDs.

The new Samsung LED data projector has an output of 1,000 ANSI lumens (max), and promises a lifespan of up to 30,000 hours. This is strong indicator that LEDs will start replacing conventional arc lamps in mainstream front projectors used in business, education and commercial applications.

This market is forecasted, by market research company Pacific Media Associates, Inc., to be in excess of 6 million units in 2010.

LEDs are a compelling light source for front projectors since their high reliability eliminates the need for expensive lamp replacement, which typically ranges from $250 to $400 including parts and labor. This drives down the total cost of ownership and reduces the administrative burden to manage stocks of replacement lamps and disposal of used lamps.

“Samsung’s new LED data projector is a great illustration of how Luminus works in close partnership with its customers to create a new multi-million unit market for PhlatLight LEDs and demonstrates that Luminus unique large chip technology is a great fit for mainstream data projectors In today’s challenging economic landscape, the marketplace is asking for affordable, long-lasting, lower total cost of ownership projectors in the business and education markets. LED project provide amazing color depth and instant start and restart functionality.

HX300G projector from LG
Luminus LEDs are also powering the HX300G, LG’s latest high-brightness LED projector weighing less than 1 kg.

Feverip

Thursday, January 14, 2010

LED Cell Rug

An Dutch designer invented a new eTextile technique to knit the strings of LED with the Wool to form a rug. This technology will create certain versatile carpet with blended colour and pattern light up by the tiny LEDs.
Low energy consumption, programmable for both lighting intensity and colour, has been widely used in various indoor applications.




Feverip

How is the Electronics and Semiconductor Business in 2010?





Various media has made comment and forecast on Semiconductor business in 2010. This is an executive summary in various semiconductor articles issued by EE Time on 14 Jan.


Biz Forecast for 2010
1. We are at the beginning of a recovery, a long, slow recovery in production in most regions and industries.

2 . Production and consumer declines reached lows in mid 2009. Financial crisis revealed excess physical capital for underlying demand. We're in a long adjustment period, to repair and rebalance the global economic system.
3. Recovery drivers: monetary policy, low interest rates, bank rescue packages, massive fiscal stimulus packages, relatively low commodity prices, inventory correction cycle over, and a slow build up of pent-up demand.

4. Worldwide GDP is expected to hit 2.7 in 2010, compared to minus 2.1 in 2009. The worldwide industrial production index is expected to hit 3.5 in 2010, compared to minus 10 in 2009.

5. Regional recovery differences may be sharp. Asia grows, led by China, India; Japan lags North America modest gains on relatively weaker consumer spending. Europe protracted weakness.

6. Slow recovery in U.S. computer growth. PC spending momentum turned positive in October 2009. (2009 growth: minus 11.1 percent; 2010: plus 1.6 percent; 2011: plus 6.3 percent).

7. Semiconductors recover sooner than other industries, up sharply in 2010 and regaining 2008 levels of activity in 2011. Semiconductor full recovery in 2011.

8. The China Automobile Industrial Organization Data shown on 11 Jan. The total New car sales in 2009 was 13,648,000. With an annual Growth of 46% over the year 2008. That number has outperformed USA. China now is the world largest market for Car.

World largest Shipment broker Clarkson latest data tells us that China has gained total 3,490,000 Tons CGT that is 44.4% of the world total tonnage, over taken Hyundai heavy industry as the World Largest Ship building industry.
By our forecast by, 2020, China will be the World largest Consumer market that will surpass USA as the World No. 1 Consumer market.

10 Tech to watch in 2010

1. Biofeedback or thought-control of electronics

2. Printed electronics

3. Plastic memory

4. Maskless lithography

5. Parallel processing

6. Energy harvesting

7. Bio-electronics and wetware

8. Resistive RAM or the memristor

9. The through-silicon via

10. Various battery technologies.

10 hot applications in 2010

1. E-book

2. The Smart Power Grid

3. Roll to Roll

4. MEMS
5. Bring the hospital Home

6. Android Invasion

7. Building the bionic human

8. Touchy subjects: screens for portables

9. 3-D bursts into the living room

10. picoprojectors


Top 25 predictions for semis in 2010

1. IC forecast: Funny money demand?

2. Yawn. Another fab tool downturn

3. Solar hype--again?

6. Intel and NAND

7. Samsung to turn upside down

8. Toshiba exits foundry biz

9. Foundry fools

I0. China's foundry industry flops

11. DRAM blues

12. Micron's fate

13. x86 wars

14. Advanced Middle East Devices rolls

15. Legal bill blues

16. National goes national

17. Let's Free Scale!

18. NXP sells itself this time

19. Microcontroller mess

20. 450-mm on ice

21. EUV does not see the light

22. Immersion is not wet

23. New packages

24. Solar or bust

25. New lows for high-k


Who's on the hot seat?

In 2010, He sees a lot of CEOs on the hot seat, based on the performances of their companies in recent times. These CEOs won't necessarily lose their jobs, but they face an inordinate amount of challenges. Their performances will be watched like a hawk. Here's my list:

*Steve Appleton, Micron's chairman and CEO. A make or break year?

*Yasushi Akao, president of Renesas. He will become president of the combined Renesas-NEC Electronics entity, which faces some nightmarish integration issues.

*Peter Bauer, Infineon's member of the management board and CEO. Can company recover from DRAM snafu?

*Rich Beyer, Freescale's chairman and CEO. Has the company run out of time?

*Robert Bruggeworth, president and CEO of RF Micro. Can company recover from downturn?

*Geesung Choi, Samsung Electronics' president and CEO. Looking over shoulder? (Jay Y. Lee is being groomed for the post. Lee is the only son of Lee Kun Hee, the former Samsung chairman.)

*Richard Clemmer, NXP's president and CEO. What's next?

*David Dutton, Mattson's president and CEO. Tough times for fab tool firm.

*Chuck del Prado, ASMI's president and CEO. Changes in the wind? *Anthony Holbrook, MIPS' interim president and CEO. Who will step in tough spot?

*Jen-Hsun Huang, Nvidia's president and CEO. Has magic touch run out?

*J.K. Kim, Hynix' president and CEO. Who will buy Korean company?

*John Kispert, Spansion's CEO. Can company emerge from Chapter 11?

*Steven Laub, Atmel's president and CEO. Is restructuring over?

*Dirk Meyer, AMD's president and CEO. Can the losses continue?

*Haruo Matsuno, Advantest's CEO. ATE giant losing ground.

*Paul Otellini, Intel's president and CEO. Intel continues to dominate, but not on the legal front.

*Mary Puma, Axcelis' president and CEO. Tough times for ion implanter supplier.

*Yukio Sakamoto, president and CEO of Elpida. Can he keep the ship afloat?

*Shih-Wei Sun, United Microelectronics Corp.'s CEO. UMC is in danger of falling behind.

*David N.K. Wang, SMIC's president and CEO. Can he turn the losing tide?

Feverip

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Signal of IC Sales Recovery

"For the first time in 2009, worldwide semiconductor sales in November were in positive territory compared to one year ago," said Scalise, in a statement. "2009 ended with sales of many IT and consumer products faring better than earlier projections. Sales of personal computers continue to strengthen in line with recent projections and appear to signal the beginning of recovery of demand from the business sector. The release of the Windows 7 operating system in October has been a positive factor. Unit sales of handsets should come in roughly even with 2008 levels. In the consumer space, there have been a few bright spots including LCD TVs, which saw an increase of 25 to 30 percent in units in 2009."


George Scalise, president of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), Commented on the three-month average of global chip sales for November, said that year-on-year sales growth had resumed and most markets were showing signs of strength.

The 3-month average of worldwide sales of semiconductors rose to $22.645 billion in November, a 3.7%  increase from October when sales were $21.829 billion, an upward revision., Sales were 8.5 % higher than November 2008 when sales were $20.87 billion. Sales for the first 11 months of 2009 were $202.1 billion, a decline of 13.2 % from the like period of 2008 when sales were $232.7 billion.

Source: Semiconductor Packaing News 5 Jan 2010

Friday, January 1, 2010

Audi Avatar Concept EV Car





Avatar is an EV car, a futuristic design, each wheel is a hidden supercharge-ion battery power motor with power of 100KW, four wheels add up with have a total power of 544 HP. That is even more powerful than Porsche 911 Turbo and GT-R Spec V!


It’s got a light, or even ultra-light aerodynamic body, and the ability to accelerate 0 to 100km/h in 2.9 seconds. It reaches speeds of 360km/h! It’s a fast car if you didn’t know such a thing. And it looks oh-so-wild. I wonder if it can fold up those wings and fly? Is it Aladin’s flying magic carpet!?

The three seat design was stolen concept form McLaren F1… LED brake lamp and I am sure by time this car is launched, the whole car is light up by LED… Head lamp, brake lamp and interior lamps as this is an Audi…The First one to use LED for their Hi Beam Head Lamp in the world.

Sharp Aquos LED TV




This is latest Sharp XGen LCD HDTV with LED Back lit

52" 1080P 120Hz

Resolution: 1920 x 1080

Brightness: 450 cd/m2

Response Time: 4ms
Item # 527000

USD$1,799.99

Shipping & Handling: $99.99

Sharp used to be the Japan No. 1 in LCD TV manufacturing, with this kind of price, I am sure that Sharp has managed a new technology on the use of LED and They must have some low cost manufacturing technology for their Back lit unit.

S1,799 is the price if Vizio for 52" LCD TV... I am drooling.. see if I can bring one from USA to Hong Kong. As I am a Fan of Sharp LCD TV.


Feverip