2012 Overall World Wide HBLED revenue is estimated to be US$10.B, with net growth of 13% comparing with 2011.
Due to softened demand, th installation for LED MOCVD will be reduced to 200 sets only in 2012. The 1H 12 LED business atmosphere is relative much weaker comparing with the 1H 10.
If there is MOCVD installation will be in Q2 or even end Q3.
Japan, Korea and Taiwan takes up 60% of the overall HBLED market, this indicates the major business base is in Asia. China will continue to grow with 30%. Installation of those Q1 11 ordered LED MOCVD will be postponed to 2H 12.
Those China LED are majority low to mid Power only, very small percentage of them are HBLED.
2012 HBLED distribution will be approximately 34% for Large TopLED for BLU, 18% for Lighting. We estimated that the percentage for large size TopLED for BLU and Lighting wilt be about 30% and 33% respectively in 2013.
Light Intensity equivalent to 60W incandescent light bulb with 810lm are selling at USD$40 each, however the sweet spot price of such LED is different in terms of location, such as US$25 in Japan, US$14 for Europe and US$7 for other new developing countries. CFL light bulb is still the major choice in 2012, LED lighting penetration rate is about 5.4%, comparing with 3.3% in 2011 and 0.3 % in 2010. There will have about 1B LED light bulbs leaving the factory entering your household area in 2012.
Overall speaking, developed countries are pushing for higher LED lighting penetration, Japan is the leader in promoting LED lighting. In this islands, by 2015, they will have 50% LED lighting. US DOE is planning to push up LED efficacy to 200lm/W by Technology in 2014 with target price of US$2 per 1Klm.
We estimated that World Wide Lighting LED penetration rate will achieve 11% in 2012, and will rise up to 26% in 2014, with revenue of US$17B go up to $42B in 2014.