The 17 rare-earth elements comprise the lanthanide series in the periodic table (elements 57 through 71), plus scandium (Sc) and yttrium (Y). The most common LED phosphor is yttrium aluminum garnet (YAG) doped with cerium (Ce), another rare earth, while TAG phosphor contains terbium (Tb). Silicate phosphors such as BOSE and nitride phosphors are commonly doped with Ce or europium (Eu).
The availability of these materials is currently causing some concern, particularly because of new export quotas introduced by China.
The LED industry uses a wide and growing range of phosphor materials to convert the light emission from LED chips into a different wavelength spectrum. LED makers rely on their supply of phosphor materials as a crucial aspect of the production process. The most common use is the combination of a blue LED chip with one or more phosphors to create a white LED. Many of the phosphors used in LEDs contain rare-earth elements.
I speculate the Phosphors material will become expensive in end of the year and onwards. Luckily There is juts one wire connecting the LED diode and normally they are quite short as the Gold price soars high, the LED assembly material price will not be dropped.. and hence the cost of a LED will not be able to drop. This will affect the penetration rate of LED for Lighting application. On the contrary, the assembly equipment price would like to drop 30% a year, plus the speed of the equipment will be increased at a speed of 20% a year .Thus these will overcome the rise of the phosphor and gold wire…
Hence as overall, the ASP of a LED will still be able to be reduced at a rate of 20% over the year.