Thursday, July 1, 2010

China will be the largest consumer market for LED SSL.

From World bank’s forecast regarding the GDP figures of US and China.
The forecast of China 's GDP will be approximately 50% of USA by 2015, and 70% by 2025, and the growth is an exponentially in the years to come. By 2050 China GDP will be about three times that of USA!
Base on this astonishing data China is well aware of their energy policy as it does not have enough neutual resources storage of crude oil, whereas USA has a lot of hidden oil under the ground.

China Government energy policy includes a lot of incentive programmes to promote the use of  greener energy to replace the oil. LED is one of the major technologies, besides wind has a lot of limitation in China as due t o the installation cost and availability of wind in hilly profile of central China, Solar has been accepted as one kind of green ernergy but during the manufacturing of solar cell, we have to use up a lot of water and electricity, thus this is not being of Green energy as compare with LED.
During the Kyoto Protocol, China has shown to the major advance countries that we have an aggressive target to reduce GHG (Green Houses Gases) of 45% by 2050 starts at  2017. It seems that China will be starting late for the reduction of emission but we have to understand that China is big country of 1.3B population across  thousand miles frrom Shanghai to Urumqi in the Western border.
We will have to spend effort, money and national incentive drive to ensure this programme to be enforced, but it might take years.
The 2nd supporting country is Japan... Refer to the attached chart of the Major committment of the rate of emission reduction... Look at US. In fact President Bush was the one to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in 2009. As for LED side, the price of a CFL light bulb in USA is about USD$1.0 to USD$5.0.,This is cheap and there is no imminent need for them to use a kind of LED which is almost 20 to 30 times more expensive kind of lLED ighting fixture.

China will be the manufacturing centre and likely the largest LED lighting consumer for LED by 2014. China LED will be our focus today and Tomorrow.

The so called "10 cities and 10,000 light project" was not successful as China Would expect in 2009 as the Amount and quality of light produced has failed to reach the levels generated by their mercury-vapour rivals, due problems of heat dissipation and power sources.

The 21 cities covered by the first stage of the project have also encountered with financing problems. The next stage of the LED streetlight project includes plans to have 2 Millions LED streetlights in 50 cities, given the government’s efforts to encourage demand for domestically-produced LED chips. China still lacks adequate up-streamed process technology, however, I speculate that in Q211 the situation will stabilize and gradually moving upwards and we will see more and more LEDs will be used for general illumination in Major City of China starting 2011 and onwards.

Forecast the growth of LED light-bulb market to peak in 2012-15, and market size of the LED light-bulb market to reach US$10bn in 2016.

China will be our focus for LED Solid State Lighting Market now and tomorrow. With the Continuous effort of major chip manufacturer like  recent Cree's advanced LED chip development, one would say why don't we mention about Osram and Philips's Lumileds?
As both Philips and Osram has the  intrinic burden of their huge traditional Incandescent lamp and CFL factories that is hard for them to close down. Take for example, LED lighting fixture of Philips groups is just account for 5% of their total lighting product currently.

Also we can not ignore the continuous effort of those world class LED assembly manufacturing equipment supplier that could produce equipment with higher throughput 30% more in two years time. The early adoption of LED Solid state light fixture would be in one day be seen everywhere in the major cities in China and at same time in the street of Shinjuku, Paris, Hong Kong, Frankfurt and New York...


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