Sunday, April 26, 2009

What will be Retail Price of a LED light bulb in 2014?

The LED is one of the ten greatest inventions in 20 Century, since the Invention of blue LED by Shuji Nakamura of Nichia in 1987, there would have been a great expectation that there will be colour TV using LED, LED lighting to replace the incandescent light bulb, LED illumination, LED torch, Third Brake light, LED interior light for Automobile,, Flash LED of higher instant power, Black Light Unit for LDD TV and PC Monitor.

Not Until 1990 the RGB LED was made in mass production at a much reasonable price. Now, you can LED everywhere, and every home has at least 200 LEDs....and every car has at least 150 LED now.
Now LED has drawn in million dollars of investment in order to produce the most efficient, most efficacy solid state Light with best reliability, High power LED is normally classified with a definition of being driven by 1Watt power, most of the powerful LED were manufactured by world largest player Cree, Nichia, Lumileds, Avago Liteon, Light house Edison and Osram.
They represent the best bunch of people who can product the brightest LED in the world.
Now most of the LED was made with some traditional way either place a LED chip on to a leadframe, PCB, ceramic and or premould leadframe by silver epoxy, this kind of process is dominate in the industry.

There may have 90% of the LEDs are made this way,
There is only less than 4% of the world best LED which is made by a gold tin Eutectic process. Flip Chip is only been utilized by Lumileds as they have a higher manufacturing cost due to lower UPH of high precision Flip Chip machine with high bonding accuracy +/-10 microns. And they have to bump a Gold bumps on the die surface. After the Chip is attached b such gold-to-gold process, there is a need to have underfill the chip, that underfill material service purpose of reinforce the rigidity of the bonds and to dissipate the heat of the chip.
Flux Eutectics process is quite common too in the HB LED manufacturing but the flux will definite affecting the bonds a few thousand hours of operation.

It seems everyone is working on the new ways to seeking a better manufacturing process for LED, as a LED light bulb such as Philips Master LED is 40X more expensive than a incandescent light bulb, a 30W incandescent light bulb can be just 1 dollar when we buy in quantity, A Philips Master LED is around USD40-50.00. That is a high initial cost for the household application.
A new cost effective manufacturing for LED is definite the top one prioritized project for most of the LED manufacturers and design houses.

The following is what we can find in the LED industry in 2011
A Silicon Wafer of 8” in diameter has been made with 2,000 cavities for next downstream process to place a LED chip of 1mm x1mmm using Direct Eutectic process. The Gold Ball bumping machine to bump the Gold wire on the wafer level.
A jetting pump to dispense yellow phosphor substance in a well controlled quantity at high speed of 100 units per second. After curing the silicone phosphor mixture then pass to a wafer level lens attachment with 8” diameter. At a placement of +/-15 microns, then cure it once more. Follow by singulation, test, sort and tape it on Tape and reel form.

This kind of 1 Watt LED may be sold at USD 0.90 dollar a piece… so a Light bulb of 20W will have approximately 20 pieces of such LED, and the cost of such light bulb will be around USD 20 dollar.

In 2014, when this kind of process will becoming mature, and the cost of the Light bulb will be selling in Park’n, Welcome, Broadway, Fortress, Costco and or Wall Mart with Branded 7 W LEDs at USD5.00!

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