Epistar's speculation that current LED 40W bulbs is USD$15, by time 2011 60W LED bulb will be USD$9.90. and will drop to USD$7.50, that would be about 5 times of the incandescent bulb with a penetration rate of 10%. The World’s LED penetration increases 1-2% that will be approximately USD$40B business.
It is the time for LED lighting, the largest market is the interior lighting, The RED LED efficacy is 168lm/W at laboratory, and We estimate that we would achieve the warm white efficacy of 130-150 lm/W in beginning of 2011. That would surpass the efficacy of cold white; their price can be almost the same.
Current situation is that the current cost of warm white LED is higher than cold white, whereas warm white is 30% less bright as cold white. Therefore, the efficacy and cost of warm white over cold white is the key factor for a higher penetration of general light application.
According to DOE’s estimation, the cold whet LED target efficacy is 113 lm.W in 2009.
The OEM cost is USD$25 for 1,000 Lumen, Warm white LED target efficacy is 70 lumens, OEM cost if USD$36 for 1000 lumens. They speculate that by 2012, Cold white efficacby is 170 lm/W OEM Cost of USD$6.00 for 1,000 Lumens. Cold White LED efficacy is 128 lm/W, OEM cost is $11.00 for 1,000 Lumens.
Recent finding on Epistar’s LED development is moving farther than what DOE can expect. The HV LED has shortened the technology gap between cold white and warm white LEDs. Their warm white LED was able to attain 110 lm/w in 2009, much higher than the other major players of 80 lm/W level. They expect that they will achieve 130 lm/W soon in 2012.
Compare with a 60W incandescent bulb that deliver 800 Lumen. The fact is when LED Efficacy is 100 lm/w, a 12.5W LED may have 50% electrical energy would be dissipated in form of thermal energy. Once if we can improve the efficacy to 150 lm/W, we need only 6.6W LED bulb, we just have 6.6W LED heat energy for the light bulb to deliver. In this LED, the power dissipation is 14.W. Only under this development. LED can be used extensively for replacement of the incandescent Light bulbs.
Epistar said that when the LED replacement bulb is just two times the price of incandescent, that the market to accept LED will be going up to 25% of adoption rate.