Monday, August 31, 2009

Road Map for Commercial TV 2009-2013

The TV has been launched by Samsung for its edge lit back light technology in end 2008, They are enjoying great market acceptance and success, as they could sell 500,000 sets in less than three months.

LG is the next flowerer that is using different technology, the direct back lit has a theory that it can have 2D local dimming and should have a better dynamic contrast, but the draw back is higher cost as A 55” TV is using typical 3,360 LED in 240 segments each with 14 LEDs.

Sharp is the No. 1 largest production of LCD TV in Japan and Sharp would make a larger promotion in the overseas market for their RGB Direct back light unit LCD TV, I am sure that they will start the mass production on LED with larger volume by end of the year, we ill see more Aquos LCD TV with RBG lack light unit in 2010 Q1. However rte manufacturing cost of Sharp TV in Japan is high. They might have to open other Asian factories for the assembly of TV in order that they stay competitive with the Korean Giants.
More players are coming soon as Philips will launch 40, 46 and 52” LED TV.
JVC Will launch 32” LED TV weight just 5 kgf, after Sharp has Launched RGB Direct BL TV for Hi End Model, they will implement on more lower end Aquos Model. Sharp should Increase LED production or OEM their LED for BLU by Nov. 2009.
Sony will move on with full spectrum supply of back lit variety such as CCFL, HCFL, edge lit LCD TV and RGB back lit unit LCD TV with his LED suppier from Japan and Osram.

China Hisense has produced LED back light TV for Russian market and this may be the next low cost phase of Mass production of LCD TV in the price range of $1,000-1,200 for size of 42” in 2010.

Vizio will launch their 55” TV in September 2009 for North American market, surprisingly that they can sell at a price of $2,000.. That should be LED edge lit back lit TV manufacturing in China.

By Q3 2010, we ca see that these Three countries Korea, Japan and China will be launching their LCD TV with tough price competition and each of them are doing their best in emulation of the others. Korea Samsung has been unloading some of their production to their subcon, LG has announced selected Flextronics for manufacturing their 19, 22, 26, 32 and 37” TV , not sure if this world 2nd largest EMS can be offer for more larger size TV then in their Mexico factory.

On the other hand, not sure if Panasonic would till produce their Plasma TV panel, as from the basic physics, a plasma TV is actually perform better than LCD in terms of colour natural reproduction and faster flash rate. However, better performance may no be the only supporting reason for a product to be survive in the commercial market, Like Sony Betamax is much better in performance and JVC VHS, however that Sony has to admit that the publicity is going for VHS, they have to close their production in 1988.

So I guess that Panasonic will increase their LCD TV volume and at same time further reduce the Plasma TV number by end 2010.

On the other Hand, OLED TV will not be popular until 2015 as they ahve to solve the low production yield and short life time issues, especially for larger panel size.

As for myself I may like to buy a Sharp Aquos RGB direct back Lit TV , I am looking for a bigger price erosion by Q2 2010 until I can afford one. Then, now it is selling at $18,000.00!

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