Sunday, September 13, 2009

What about the LED market in 2010?

There is huge demand for netbook together with note book computer from China to Peru. Note book and Net book is purging for more LED BLU in the market. There is no overcast, no cloud, all we can see is blue clear sky of White LED lighting, the only hidden concern is how some of the major Korean, Taiwanese, USA and European LED makers can have the LED chip for the markets.

Believe Samsung, LG, Sharp, Hitachi, Vizio and Philips is either making more LED for their own use or acquiring more from their subcons for the required LED quantity to meet the LED BLU LCD TV and Note book monitors. A forecast expect that there will be 5 times expansion of the LCD TV with LED backlight in 2010 comparing 2009. That is an estimation of 3.29M to 15 M sets. However, from the continuing improving of the LED efficacy there may be some kind re-engineering of the Backlit design. 5 % reduction in number of LED per LCD BLU will happen. Estimated that the market needs 1.4B LEDs for this LED TV and NB BLU in 2010.

US Obama administering has been subsidizing $2B total for replacing old automobile,
The programe” Cash for Clunkers” is encouraging Americans who want a new car and want to turn in their old car to go to their car dealer and the money will be there for either $3,500 or $4,500,” However that amount of 2B may not be big enough to be effective, probably 4B will be sufficient.

The German program was launched in January 2009. The Germans put more money on the table than their French neighbors: In France, a retired car is worth 1000 Euro with a new purchase. In Germany, it is 2500 Euro.

This hit the proverbial sweet spot: According to the same ACEA numbers, January to June sales in Germany rose 26 percent. June sales in Germany were 40.5 percent above June 2008. (ACEA is on vacation. According to official statistics of the German Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt, July sales rose 29.5 percent.) ACEA stands for European Automobile manufacturer’s association.

The German program was originally funded with 1.5 billion Euro in Jan 2009. Two months after its launch, it was clear that the so-called "Abwrackprämien" program would run out of money quickly. In March 2009, funding was increased to 5 billion Euro, good for 2 million cars. As this is being typed, more than 1.8 million applications for the subsidy have been submitted, there is enough funding left for 155,000 cars. This is in a market that sells 3 million cars in a good year. Obviously, this program is a huge success.

From the “Abwrackprämien” programme their subsequent effect is to trigger an immediate demand of LED from the major Automotive LED suppliers after the stock has been reaching to replenishing level in May 2009.

Blooming of BLU LED, side by side by the higher adoption rate of LED illumination, LED will be remaining a hot item in 2010.

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